Wonderful, insightful piece, thank you! Dubrov should contact you asap!
To emphasize your point that Swiatek was happy to play Serve+1 BHs behind 2nd serves, these were her numbers (only includes 2nd serve points):
Serve+1 distribution: 40% FH; 60% BH (12;18)
Won after a Serve+1 FH: 25% (3/12)
Won after a Serve+1 BH: 61% (11/18)
Swiatek did a great job at defending her 2nd serve.
Obviously, Sabalenka failed to come up with a response. Her numbers were uncharacteristic and poor: a single forcing return (and no winners) while missing 7 2nd serve returns.
Thanks you so much! These stats are great, as well, especially the last one which seems almost too good to be true in terms of hammering home the point about handcuffing Aryna. The only improvement that might show up in your detailed stats (away from generally returning better) is on those T Deuce 2nd serve returns. Ignoring FH/BH, do you know how her forcing, winner, missing, etc numbers compare from S1&2 to S3 when Iga served into that lane specifically? That might unearth the impact of those run-around FHs. Only asking if you have it to hand, don't worry about it if not.
Wonderful, insightful piece, thank you! Dubrov should contact you asap!
To emphasize your point that Swiatek was happy to play Serve+1 BHs behind 2nd serves, these were her numbers (only includes 2nd serve points):
Serve+1 distribution: 40% FH; 60% BH (12;18)
Won after a Serve+1 FH: 25% (3/12)
Won after a Serve+1 BH: 61% (11/18)
Swiatek did a great job at defending her 2nd serve.
Obviously, Sabalenka failed to come up with a response. Her numbers were uncharacteristic and poor: a single forcing return (and no winners) while missing 7 2nd serve returns.
Thanks you so much! These stats are great, as well, especially the last one which seems almost too good to be true in terms of hammering home the point about handcuffing Aryna. The only improvement that might show up in your detailed stats (away from generally returning better) is on those T Deuce 2nd serve returns. Ignoring FH/BH, do you know how her forcing, winner, missing, etc numbers compare from S1&2 to S3 when Iga served into that lane specifically? That might unearth the impact of those run-around FHs. Only asking if you have it to hand, don't worry about it if not.
I divide each box in 4 areas roughly corresponding to wide, body FH, body BH and T serves.
Below is the data for T and body BH 2nd serves on the Deuce side:
Set 1 Deuce side 2nd serves
- T: 4 (Iga won 3/4; 1 return error)
- "Body BH": 3 (Iga won 1/3; 1 return error)
- Total: 7 (Iga won 4/7; 2 return errors)
Set 2 Deuce side 2nd serves
- T: 4 (Iga won 1/4)
- "Body BH": 2 (Iga won 1/2)
- Total: 6 (Iga won 2/6)
Set 3 Deuce side 2nd serves
- T: 3 (Iga won 2/3; 1 return error)
- "Body BH": 3 (Iga won 1/3; Sabalenka 1 forcing return)
- Total: 6 (Iga won 3/6; 1 return error; 1 forcing return)